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Re: TD Fifteen

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/16/2017, 3:43 pm

Actually, I would say the Euro has mostly not been a good sign over the past few days. (GFS too for the most part) The Saturday 12Z run of the Euro only has it off the East Coast because there is a Fujiwhara interaction with Jose. Jose gets spun into the East Coast. Beyond 10 days, who knows if future Maria would or wouldn't also get spun around at that point.

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

It's still too far out and the models don't have a handle on the complexity yet. The Euro has shown multiple loops and now a Fujiwhara interaction. It's definitely not being too consistent in the longer range. Both GFS and Euro do often show some threat to the East Coast, either from Jose or future Maria, or both. That's the important part so far.

Of course for future Maria, it will be impacting a lot of the islands first.

46



In this thread:

11am Sat: 96L becomes Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen; TS watches for parts of Lesser Antilles - Chris in Tampa, 9/16/2017, 11:34 am

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