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Jose 5pm EDT Sat: Wind field expanding. U.S. Outer Banks, Virginia to New England should monitor

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/16/2017, 5:17 pm

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html











Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through
Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to
973 mb.  A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an
outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed
SFMR wind was 65 kt.  Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity
is held at 70 kt.  The lack of significant intensification in spite
of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the
wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.

The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the
mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering.  Smoothing
through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or
360/5 kt.  This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during
the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is then expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial
position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.  It
should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie
west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility
that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the
official forecast.

Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the
shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight
strengthening.  However, the shear is expected to increase over 30
kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken.  The
hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72
hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves
eastward away from New England.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 28.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  17/0600Z 29.6N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  17/1800Z 30.9N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  18/0600Z 32.3N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  18/1800Z 33.8N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  19/1800Z 37.1N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  20/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg








Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH 80-MPH WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 71.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.  Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this
area during the next day or two.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 71.9 West.  Jose is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the
next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane
through Monday.

The aircraft data indicate that Jose has increased in size.
Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
For more information, please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

86



In this thread:

Jose 5pm EDT Sat: Wind field expanding. U.S. Outer Banks, Virginia to New England should monitor - Chris in Tampa, 9/16/2017, 5:17 pm

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