Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules




Re: T.D. Fifteen now Tropical Storm Maria. Hurricane watches issued in parts of Lesser Antilles

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/16/2017, 8:56 pm

SSTs from SHIPS intensity output from 2pm EDT Saturday. 8pm EDT (0Z) should be out at anytime.

                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  FIFTEEN     AL152017  09/16/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    45    50    56    60    70    76    85    90    93    96    97    95
V (KT) LAND       40    45    50    56    60    70    76    85    90    93    96    80    85
V (KT) LGEM       40    45    51    56    61    71    78    87    96   104   105    87    94
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     4     7     6     8     7     9     6     8     8     9     3    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1     0     2     1     4     0     2     3     0     2     3     3
SHEAR DIR        129   175   233   261   306   332   357     4   357   299   344   295   314
SST (C)         29.5  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.1  29.3  29.4  29.5  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.3  29.4
POT. INT. (KT)   162   160   157   155   153   156   158   159   159   158   156   156   158
ADJ. POT. INT.   170   165   159   154   151   151   152   150   150   149   147   146   148
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.2   0.0   0.3   0.6   0.6   0.5   0.7   0.9   0.6
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    11    11    11    10    11    10    10    10    11    11
700-500 MB RH     61    60    57    60    61    62    62    61    61    60    61    61    64
MODEL VTX (KT)    16    18    19    20    20    24    24    26    27    28    29    29    27
850 MB ENV VOR    39    21    14    11    10     6    11     5    16    25    32    33    40
200 MB DIV        53    72    97    71    78    75    77    30    57    38    57    25    83
700-850 TADV      -1     3     5     7     2    -2    -3    -2    -1     0     1     1     6
LAND (KM)        765   773   755   671   594   508   498   555   432   265    80   -22     3
LAT (DEG N)     12.2  12.6  13.0  13.4  13.7  14.4  15.1  15.8  16.3  17.0  17.7  18.3  18.7
LONG(DEG W)     51.7  53.1  54.4  55.4  56.4  58.1  59.7  61.1  62.2  63.6  65.2  66.8  68.5
STM SPEED (KT)    15    14    12    10    10     8     8     6     7     8     8     8     9
HEAT CONTENT      37    48    49    49    56    66    60    38    60    72    66    83    83

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  0
 T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  677  (MEAN=618)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.0 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
 PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           30.5

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
 SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   8.  12.  16.  19.  22.  24.  26.  27.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  12.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
 PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.
 200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
 700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   2.   6.   6.   8.  10.  10.  11.  10.   7.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -0.  -0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.  -0.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  16.  20.  30.  36.  45.  50.  53.  56.  57.  55.

               CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   40. LAT, LON:   12.2    51.7

     ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 FIFTEEN    09/16/17  18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    10.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.72          11.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     5.9      30.1  to    2.9       0.89           5.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    47.8       0.0  to  156.2       0.31           1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.8       2.4  to   -3.0       0.30           2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.0      36.6  to    2.8       0.79           5.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    40.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.49           1.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   119.5      28.4  to  139.6       0.82           3.6
D200 (10**7s-1)       :    74.2     -29.7  to  181.5       0.49           1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   249.8     961.4  to  -67.1       0.69           0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  11% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  48% is   4.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  33% is   4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   3.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  25% is   4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  34% is   6.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  40% is   6.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHIPS-RII:    11.3%   47.8%   32.5%   15.8%    9.6%   24.8%   33.9%   40.4%
   Logistic:    18.7%   55.2%   36.7%   27.9%   26.9%   37.0%   13.1%   13.2%
   Bayesian:     6.0%   25.7%   14.8%   14.0%    2.7%    6.2%    1.9%    0.8%
  Consensus:    12.0%   42.9%   28.0%   19.2%   13.0%   22.7%   16.3%   18.1%

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 FIFTEEN    09/16/17  18 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 FIFTEEN    09/16/2017  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)     ***(***)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)      ERR         <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
     TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  40    45    50    56    60    70    76    85    90    93    96    80    85
18HR AGO           40    39    44    50    54    64    70    79    84    87    90    74    79
12HR AGO           40    37    36    42    46    56    62    71    76    79    82    66    71
 6HR AGO           40    34    31    30    34    44    50    59    64    67    70    54    59
     NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
 IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
 IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT


From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

This used OFCI track:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=15&display=google_map&latestrun=1&models=OFCI
SSTs would be along it.







Some possible SST sites:


https://nowcoast.noaa.gov/#x=-62.195068&y=15.421005&z=6&layers=100:1,2+225+285+295+300+305+315+320+325&au=10&o=1.00,1.00,0.82,1.00,0.50
(when it works)

http://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/
Global Sea Surface Temperature

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

76



In this thread:

T.D. Fifteen now Tropical Storm Maria. Hurricane watches issued in parts of Lesser Antilles - Chris in Tampa, 9/16/2017, 5:03 pm

< Return to message board



Post A Reply

Subject:


Message:

Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:
Add  


Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.