Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules




Maria 11pm AST Sat: Additional hurricane watches issued for Maria. Intensity forecast increased

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/16/2017, 11:15 pm

We're talking about a 125mph hurricane making landfall in Puerto Rico based on the latest forecast, yet the discussion says "it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast." When the NHC starts talking like they are, you need to be prepared for a significant storm.

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html






Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Maria has become a little better organized this evening, with
satellite imagery showing the formation of a small convective area
near the center that may reflect the formation of an inner wind
core. However, this has not yet resulted in intensification, as
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
remain about 45 kt.

The longer-term initial motion is 280/14, while recent satellite
imagery suggests the system may be turning a little more to the
right.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected
to gradually weaken through the forecast period, which would
allow Maria to move generally west-northwestward with a decrease
in forward speed during the next five days.  The track guidance is
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is nudged only
slightly to the left of the previous track based on the initial
location.  The forecast continues to take the core of Maria near the
Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, close to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico in about 96 hr, and near eastern Hispaniola at about
120 h.

Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture,
light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the
next 4 days.  This should result in steady to rapid intensification.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in
calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major
hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.  However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility,
and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than
currently forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical
storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles,
and additional watches will likely be issued on Sunday.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
Sunday.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 12.5N  53.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  17/1200Z 13.1N  55.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  18/0000Z 13.9N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  18/1200Z 14.6N  59.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  19/0000Z 15.3N  60.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  20/0000Z 16.5N  63.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  21/0000Z 18.0N  66.5W  110 KT 125 MPH...COAST OF PUERTO RICO
120H  22/0000Z 19.5N  69.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven









Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 53.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Hurricane Watch
for St. Maarten.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued early Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 53.7 West. Maria is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be
near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6
to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. Maria is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward
Islands through Tuesday night. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by Sunday night.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven









114



In this thread:

Maria 11pm AST Sat: Additional hurricane watches issued for Maria. Intensity forecast increased - Chris in Tampa, 9/16/2017, 11:15 pm

< Return to message board



Post A Reply

Subject:


Message:

Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:
Add  


Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.