| We're talking about a 125mph hurricane making landfall in Puerto Rico based on the latest forecast, yet the discussion says "it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast." When the NHC starts talking like they are, you need to be prepared for a significant storm. Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Maria has become a little better organized this evening, with satellite imagery showing the formation of a small convective area near the center that may reflect the formation of an inner wind core. However, this has not yet resulted in intensification, as various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain about 45 kt. The longer-term initial motion is 280/14, while recent satellite imagery suggests the system may be turning a little more to the right. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken through the forecast period, which would allow Maria to move generally west-northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next five days. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is nudged only slightly to the left of the previous track based on the initial location. The forecast continues to take the core of Maria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 96 hr, and near eastern Hispaniola at about 120 h. Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture, light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the next 4 days. This should result in steady to rapid intensification. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches will likely be issued on Sunday. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as Sunday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 12.5N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 13.1N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 13.9N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 14.6N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 15.3N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 18.0N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...COAST OF PUERTO RICO 120H 22/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Beven Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 53.7W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Dominica * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued early Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 53.7 West. Maria is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |