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Posted by CX on 9/17/2017, 4:14 pm

First 2 vortex messages are in.

First pass showed 986mb - second is 984mb, so slowly intensifying. It should be noted the sonde for the 984mb pressure landed in 20kt surface winds, so you could argue Maria is really ~982-983,

Maria is building a strong warm-core already. Eye temps are 8C greater inside the eye on the second pass compared to 6C on the first. For a formative hurricane, this departure is very strong. By comparison, Irma was regularly between +9 and +13C during her life as a major.

Eye character is circular at 20 miles, open SE. It was closed and elliptical on the first pass, so the change in shape is an improvement but the openness is not.

Winds have not quite caught up to pressure falls.

Additionally, recon notes markedly drier air still present in NW and SW quads and sat imagery shows she still lacks any substantial convection or banding in these quads as well.

Gradual intensification should continue. RI isn't out of the question, but less likely until her western half fills out some.


In this thread:

RECON Data - CX, 9/17/2017, 4:14 pm

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