Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules




Jose 5pm EDT Sun: Tropical storm watches issued for parts of mid-Atlantic & New England coast

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/17/2017, 4:51 pm
Message modified by board administrator on 9/17/2017, 5:13 pm

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html









Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 71.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Fenwick Island, Delaware,
to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from
East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including
Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 71.8 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Jose is
forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next
couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and
southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and
from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause
isolated flooding and flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi










Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The satellite appearance of Jose has generally changed little
during the past several hours.  Microwave data indicate that the
center of circulation is located on the south side of the main area
of deep convection, likely due to strong southerly shear.  The
current intensity is held at 80 kt based on the earlier aircraft
data.  The initial wind radii have been adjusted outward in
accordance with the ASCAT data from a few hours ago.

The strong wind shear currently affecting Jose is expected to
continue for another day or so.  Although the shear is expected to
slacken beyond that time, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall
of the Gulf Stream current by then and move into a progressively
drier environment.  These conditions should cause a slow weakening
trend through the period, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one.  It should be noted, however, that
despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer
wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that
move into the mid-latitudes.


The hurricane continues to move northward at 8 kt on the west side
of a subtropical ridge.  This general motion is expected to
persist for the next 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern holds.
Thereafter, a turn to the northeast and then east is predicted as a
trough currently over central Canada moves closer to Jose.  This
trough, however, is not expected to pick up Jose, and instead the
cyclone is expected to meander or drift southward by the end of the
forecast period.  The 5-day forecast position has been adjusted to
the southwest of the previous NHC prediction, but otherwise only
minor changes were made.

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will both be investigating
Jose this evening.  This valuable data will help assess the
hurricane's initial intensity and structure, and assist the models
in determining the future path and intensity of the hurricane.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,
including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current
forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any
deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring
heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long
Island, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river
flooding would increase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.5N  71.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 32.7N  71.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 34.3N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 37.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 40.1N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 38.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi







73



In this thread:

Jose 5pm EDT Sun: Tropical storm watches issued for parts of mid-Atlantic & New England coast - Chris in Tampa, 9/17/2017, 4:51 pm

< Return to message board



Post A Reply

Subject:


Message:

Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:
Add  


Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.