5pm AST Mon: Extremely dangerous category 4 Maria forecast to continue strengthening
Posted by Chris in Tampa
on 9/18/2017, 5:19 pm
|Hurricane warning issued for Puerto Rico. Forecast peak is 155mph before landfall in Puerto Rico.|
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra,
The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane
Warning for that island to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata, and a Tropical Storm Watch
west of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Lucia
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later
tonight or on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
by satellite imagery and data from the French radar on Martinique
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.7 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Maria
is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the
next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica,
Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical
storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward
Islands. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday
through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight,
and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican
Republic on Wednesday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:
Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
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5pm AST Mon: Extremely dangerous category 4 Maria forecast to continue strengthening - Chris in Tampa, 9/18/2017, 5:19 pm< Return to message board
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