| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Martinique Radar: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?323 Later this morning the eye will likely start appearing on long range San Juan radar: https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JUA&type=N0Z&num=12&delay=50&showlabels=1&showstorms=1&lightning=1 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5 status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch Earlier 5am NHC public advisory and discussion below... Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla * St. Lucia * Martinique A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla * Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria. Additional watches and warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 62.3 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Maria. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines this morning, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of the hurricane. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about 135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength. Another Air Force aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained category 5 intensity. Maria will be moving through a low-shear atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next couple of days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events. Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36 hours. Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Jose. This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 4-5. There is fairly good agreement amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This is generally near the left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and the corrected consensus predictions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 62.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 63.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.5N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 21/0600Z 19.3N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 21.2N 70.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.7N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |