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5:10am AST: 160mph; Maria regains category 5 strength

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/19/2017, 5:40 am

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Martinique Radar:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?323

Later this morning the eye will likely start appearing on long range San Juan radar:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JUA&type=N0Z&num=12&delay=50&showlabels=1&showstorms=1&lightning=1






Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch





Earlier 5am NHC public advisory and discussion below...





Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 62.3 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an
extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating Maria.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this
morning.  Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the Hurricane Warning area later today and Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines
this morning, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

















Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain
of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of
the hurricane.  Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about
135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength.  Another Air Force
aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data
from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained
category 5 intensity.  Maria will be moving through a low-shear
atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next
couple of days.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the
early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events.
Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36
hours.  Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical
shear could cause some weakening.  The official intensity forecast
is near or above the latest model consensus.

After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the
initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt.
There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory package.  A weak ridge situated over the western
Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48
hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to
pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to
weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of
Hurricane Jose.  This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then
north-northwestward by day 4-5.  There is fairly good agreement
amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one.  This is generally near the
left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and
the corrected consensus predictions.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and
destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and
British  Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 16.0N  62.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  19/1800Z 16.7N  63.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  20/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  20/1800Z 18.5N  66.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
48H  21/0600Z 19.3N  67.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  22/0600Z 21.2N  70.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  23/0600Z 23.7N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 26.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

176



In this thread:

5:10am AST: 160mph; Maria regains category 5 strength - Chris in Tampa, 9/19/2017, 5:40 am

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