11pm AST Tues on T.S. Jose: Tropical storm conditions expected to begin in warning area early Wed
Posted by Chris in Tampa
on 9/19/2017, 11:58 pm
|This storm is like the Energizer bunny. It just keeps going. But it is forecast to start having more impacts.|
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Quick little summary:
Tropical Storm Jose is "likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in" "Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast". "Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days." "Rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding." A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. "Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday."
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
...JOSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with a
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Jose is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on
Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning early tomorrow.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:
Over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts...1 to 3
Nantucket and Cape Cod...2 to 4 inches.
Martha's Vineyard...3 to 5 inches.
These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and
although the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface
winds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane
strength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers
which indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose
is moving over cool waters. This should result in additional
weakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 48 hours.
Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose
is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently,
Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but
most of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the
north in two days. This new pattern should block the motion
of the storm and Jose should begin to meander. The NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the
HFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.
2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.
4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5
inches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 37.9N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 38.8N 69.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 39.6N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 39.7N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0000Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
Meanwhile, if you want a little levity, a special Atlantic outlook was issued tonight on former Lee:
I don't know why, but I just had to laugh at the idea it could possibly come back.
Special outlook on Lee:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1055 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
Updated for the remnants of Lee
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea approaching the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.
1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a low pressure area,
the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Satellite wind data show that the low is already producing
gale-force winds, and only a small increase in the organization of
the deep convection would result in the regeneration of Lee.
However, the environmental conditions are only marginal favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This low is expected to move
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Additional information on the remnants of Lee can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
In this thread:
11pm AST Tues on T.S. Jose: Tropical storm conditions expected to begin in warning area early Wed - Chris in Tampa, 9/19/2017, 11:58 pm< Return to message board
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