| This storm is like the Energizer bunny. It just keeps going. But it is forecast to start having more impacts. Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Quick little summary: Tropical Storm Jose is "likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in" "Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast". "Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days." "Rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding." A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. "Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday." Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...JOSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 70.8W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning early tomorrow. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts...1 to 3 inches. Nantucket and Cape Cod...2 to 4 inches. Martha's Vineyard...3 to 5 inches. These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and although the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface winds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane strength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers which indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose is moving over cool waters. This should result in additional weakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently, Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but most of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the north in two days. This new pattern should block the motion of the storm and Jose should begin to meander. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the HFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast from Long Island to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. 2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 37.9N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 38.8N 69.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 39.6N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 39.7N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/0000Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Avila -------------- -------------- -------------- Meanwhile, if you want a little levity, a special Atlantic outlook was issued tonight on former Lee: I don't know why, but I just had to laugh at the idea it could possibly come back. Special outlook on Lee: Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1055 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Updated for the remnants of Lee For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea approaching the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Satellite wind data show that the low is already producing gale-force winds, and only a small increase in the organization of the deep convection would result in the regeneration of Lee. However, the environmental conditions are only marginal favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This low is expected to move northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Additional information on the remnants of Lee can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Blake |