Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules

Such a huge eye in Maria

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/21/2017, 4:41 am

I don't know what to make of it. From 11pm NHC discussion:

"In addition,
the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric
eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the
inner one has collapsed in the last fix.  This suggest that an
eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred.  With this complex
scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in
intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category
3 status in about 24 hours."

You have the eyewall now around/over the Dominican Republic because the eye is so large.

12:31am AST was the last vortex from recon when there was a 40 nautical mile (46 statute miles) wide ragged eye.

Next recon mission:

      A. 21/1130Z,1730Z ... scheduled center fixes around 7:30am, 1:30pm EDT
      B. AFXXX 1115A MARIA
      C. 21/0930Z ... departs at 5:30am EDT
      D. 19.6N 68.4W
      E. 21/1100Z TO 21/17300Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

From Plan of the Day:
How to Read:

If the eye is this big when moving near Turks and Caicos and the track remained east of there, they could be in the eyewall getting strongest winds due to the size of the eye.

And I think we need to be talking about a lot higher than 115mph in the forecast. At 11pm the forecast was for 115mph in 24 hours and it did it in 3 hours. That was the peak they called for.

This is an instance where I'm not sure why the models are not forecasting higher, at least short term. HMON forecast went from 170mph (hour 84) in 18Z run to 136mph (hour 12) in 0Z run. It went from really high to a lot more reasonable. HMON is highest out of current models released in NHC's ATCF system.

HurricaneCity model system:

Graphical models at Tropical Tidbits:


In this thread:

2am AST Thursday: 115mph; Maria regains major hurricane status near eastern Dominican Republic - Chris in Tampa, 9/21/2017, 3:17 am
    • Such a huge eye in Maria - Chris in Tampa, 9/21/2017, 4:41 am

< Return to message board

Post A Reply



Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:

Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.