| I don't know what to make of it. From 11pm NHC discussion: "In addition, the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the inner one has collapsed in the last fix. This suggest that an eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred. With this complex scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category 3 status in about 24 hours." You have the eyewall now around/over the Dominican Republic because the eye is so large. 12:31am AST was the last vortex from recon when there was a 40 nautical mile (46 statute miles) wide ragged eye. Next recon mission: FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76 A. 21/1130Z,1730Z ... scheduled center fixes around 7:30am, 1:30pm EDT B. AFXXX 1115A MARIA C. 21/0930Z ... departs at 5:30am EDT D. 19.6N 68.4W E. 21/1100Z TO 21/17300Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT From Plan of the Day: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php How to Read: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutreconpod.shtml If the eye is this big when moving near Turks and Caicos and the track remained east of there, they could be in the eyewall getting strongest winds due to the size of the eye. And I think we need to be talking about a lot higher than 115mph in the forecast. At 11pm the forecast was for 115mph in 24 hours and it did it in 3 hours. That was the peak they called for. This is an instance where I'm not sure why the models are not forecasting higher, at least short term. HMON forecast went from 170mph (hour 84) in 18Z run to 136mph (hour 12) in 0Z run. It went from really high to a lot more reasonable. HMON is highest out of current models released in NHC's ATCF system. HurricaneCity model system: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Graphical models at Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ |