Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules

Lee returns as a depression... in the middle of nowhere

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/22/2017, 8:30 pm

The miniature storm could hardly be further from anything if it tried.

I don't know why, but I can't stop laughing about this storm. I feel like it's just trying to annoy the NHC at this point.

Wider Atlantic views:

Saved image of 5pm AST Friday forecast track:

Saved satellite image with T.D. Lee circled:

Saved satellite image from it's floater:

It's still tiny looking even on that.

Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level
center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern
periphery of a large upper-level trough.  A large convective burst
over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level
center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper
trough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is
now well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the
center, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind
speed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy
structure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data.

Cold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate
the effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee
remains in a low-shear environment.  The depression is expected to
strengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast
to increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance,
although it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the
lower-shear, warmer-water environment.  This wind speed forecast is
difficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which
notoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity.

Lee is moving northward at about 6 kt.  The depression should turn
to the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it
moves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic.  Lee is
forecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few
days, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range.  It
should be noted that models have a rather weak representation of
Lee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain
forecast.  For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which
has the most coherent cyclone to follow.


INIT  22/2100Z 30.8N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 31.7N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 32.3N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 32.3N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 32.1N  45.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  25/1800Z 31.4N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  26/1800Z 30.5N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 29.5N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Blake


In this thread:

Lee returns as a depression... in the middle of nowhere - Chris in Tampa, 9/22/2017, 8:30 pm

< Return to message board

Post A Reply



Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:

Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.