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5am EDT Sun: Interests along Carolina & Mid-Atlantic coast should monitor progress of Maria

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/24/2017, 5:24 am

GFS and Euro still take this pretty close to Outer Banks, so Maria needs to continue to be watched. "Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast later today."


Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents


Normal Satellite Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector 2 floater (centered on storm as of posting):
RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State | RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison | College of DuPage






Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Maria has reported
700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt in the southeastern eyewall,
with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave
Radiometer between 75-80 kt.  The plane also reported that the
central pressure has risen to 948 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to
95 kt, and it is possible that this is a bit generous.

The initial motion is 355/8, with Maria currently being steered by
the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off
low/trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States.  A general motion toward the north or north-
northwest should continue for the next 3 days or so, with some
decrease in forward speed as a mid-latitude westerly ridge moves
through the New England states to the north of the hurricane.  After
72 h, the westerlies move south and erode the subtropical ridge,
which should allow Maria to recurve to the northeast.  The track
guidance supports this scenario, although there is some
disagreement on the timing and the location of the recurvature.
The new forecast track lies a little to the north and west of the
previous track in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected consensus
model.  However, the 72 and 96 h points lie a little to the east of
the forecasts of the GFS and ECMWF models.  Regardless of where the
recurvature occurs, Maria is a large cyclone and the associated
tropical storm force winds could eventually reach a portion of the
North Carolina coast.

Fluctuations in intensity appear likely during the next 24-36 h as
Maria remains over warm water and in an environment of light or
moderate shear.  After that time, the hurricane is likely to
encounter the colder water left by Hurricane Jose, which should
cause a weakening trend.  The new intensity forecast follows the
overall trend of the guidance and, except for a downward nudge at
12 and 24 h, is similar to the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area later today.


2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week.
 For
more information, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 27.9N  72.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 28.9N  72.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 30.1N  73.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 31.2N  73.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 32.1N  73.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  27/0600Z 34.0N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  28/0600Z 35.0N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 36.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven











Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT MARIA IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 72.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast later today.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 72.7 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Monday.  On the forecast track, the
core of Maria will be moving well east of the United States
southeast coast during the next two days.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Maria is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).  During the past several hours, NOAA buoy 41047 located
to the east of the center reported sustained winds of 68 mph
(109 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
 Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven







Spaghetti Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=15&display=google_map&latestrun=1

Global models:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

125



In this thread:

5am EDT Sun: Interests along Carolina & Mid-Atlantic coast should monitor progress of Maria - Chris in Tampa, 9/24/2017, 5:24 am

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