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Re: Maria

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/24/2017, 5:24 pm

From 5pm Sunday NHC discussion:

"Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is
currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a
cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over
the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane
should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to
the north of the system over the northeastern United States.  After
72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as
the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude
trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the
end of the week.  The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly
similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side
of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge.  The NHC track
is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus
aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean."

The NOAA G-IV was supposed to fly around the storm and get data for the models, but it isn't out there. Perhaps it had a mechanical issue.

Nothing on these sites from that plane:
https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#!/map?callsign=NOAA49&mapid=satellite&zoom=13&lat=27.9853&lng=-82.0159
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49  (this site keeps guessing at estimated departure time, it doesn't mean anything)

I had hoped sonde data from around the storm would get into tonight's models.

106



In this thread:

Maria - SC, 9/24/2017, 4:49 pm
    • Re: Maria - Chris in Tampa, 9/24/2017, 5:24 pm

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