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Re: Maria at 11pm EDT Sunday: 90mph

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/25/2017, 12:20 am
Message modified by board administrator on 9/25/2017, 12:26 am

According to the IKE calculator here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php
The Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) is about 4.6 for Maria at 11pm EDT. (out of a scale of 6)

"The SDP box is the Surge Destructive Potential Rating based on a scale of zero to 6. SDP is interpreted similar to the Saffir SImpson scale in that the most destructive storms are rated above 5 and the least destructive storms < 1."

Using the data from the Forecast Advisory:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/


"ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT."


Rmax(nm) I got from best track data:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=15&display=best_track



"This calculator will let you estimate the IKE and Surge Destructive Potential based on estimates of the outermost extent of tropical storm (TS), 50 kt, and Hurricane Force (H) winds in each storm quadrant. The results will give you ball park estimates if you use the operational wind radii. These estimates are based on some very coarse wind field assumptions. An improved estimate would come from a gridded wind analysis or model input data using the methods described in Powell and Reinhold 2007."

It's not as good as what you used to be able to have access to, but it's something. It shows how powerful the water is in this storm, despite the maximum winds coming down.


58



In this thread:

Maria at 11pm EDT Sunday: 90mph - Chris in Tampa, 9/24/2017, 10:44 pm

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