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Re: tropical cyclone formation potential

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/27/2017, 7:31 pm

Coverage started at 2pm EDT Wednesday in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and
on Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits of Florida during the next day or so.  Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


I wondered how long it would take for a circle. They are not calling for much development, mostly heavy rain at this point.

72 hour surface forecast:

I assume this area is the "L" around Florida. Not a tropical cyclone on that.

7 day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast:


In this thread:

tropical cyclone formation potential - cypresstx, 9/27/2017, 8:04 am

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