Re: tropical cyclone formation potential
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/27/2017, 7:31 pm
Coverage started at 2pm EDT Wednesday in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Maria, located east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba and the Straits of Florida during the next day or so. Some development of this system is possible when it moves near the Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
I wondered how long it would take for a circle. They are not calling for much development, mostly heavy rain at this point.
72 hour surface forecast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
I assume this area is the "L" around Florida. Not a tropical cyclone on that.
7 day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif From: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf |
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