week 2 has me concerned
Posted by cypresstx on 9/28/2017, 8:17 pm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

that's a REALLY large area of moderate confidence
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

During Week-2, above average rains are likely to continue over Central America, with increasing odds for tropical cyclone formation for a region straddling the land mass, largely in the predicted wake of the Kelvin Wave. The ERW is likely to extend precipitation westward over the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean, though certainty in that is low as models diverge greatly on where the strongest anomalies in atmospheric convection are likely to develop. The slowly evolving background state is likely to continue favoring below normal convection near the central Pacific, though east of the Week-1 position due to the subsidence behind the Kelvin wave.

we'll see what the next release brings, next Tuesday

October is generally a "safe" month for us in TX, but not so everywhere



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVO8sUrs-Pw

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tropical cyclone formation potential - cypresstx, 9/27/2017, 9:04 am
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