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Calm Before the Next Atlantic Storm?

Posted by cypresstx on 10/3/2017, 3:16 pm
Bob Henson    October 3, 2017, 1:04 PM EDT

There's a somewhat greater risk that a center of low pressure will spin off from the monsoonal gyre and head northward from the northwest Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Global models have been hinting at this possibility for days, and it's a climatologically favored progression. In its 8 am EDT Tuesday outlook, NHC gave this system a near-zero chance of development through Thursday but a 30% chance through Sunday. Wind shear is predicted to relax over at least some parts of this area, so given the very warm ocean temperatures, we'll need to keep an eye on it. Any system that emerges would tend to move toward the U.S. Gulf Coast late next weekend or early next week and could be a heavy-rain producer.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.  Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over Cuba and near the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and gusty winds.  Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, this system will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


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Calm Before the Next Atlantic Storm? - cypresstx, 10/3/2017, 3:16 pm

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