up to 70% in 5-day
Posted by cypresstx
on 10/3/2017, 7:16 pm
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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