euro vs gfs - 8 am TWO & Discussion - 90/90 at 2/5 days
Posted by cypresstx
on 10/4/2017, 8:06 am
|euro has it much further east|
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.
A 1007 mb low in the SW Caribbean centered near 11.5N81W is showing signs of organization. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of the low center. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next two days. The disturbance should move north-northwest into the NW Caribbean Sea then reach the southern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. This system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
A gale warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas from 25N-30N between 71W-81W. Scatterometer data shows a large area of 20-30 kt winds east of Florida. Expect frequent gusts to 35 kt today due to a tight pressure gradient.
A gale warning is also in effect west of Florida in the NE Gulf of Mexico from 26N-29N between 83W-89W. Scatterometer data shows a large area of 20-30 kt winds west of Florida. Expect frequent gusts to 35 kt today due to a tight pressure gradient.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N37W to 08N40W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep moisture. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N-15N between 35W-45W.
The axis of a tropical wave in the E Caribbean extending into the Atlantic is from 24N63W to 10N64W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing aloft. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the trough are supporting widely scattered moderate convection over the Atlantic from 11N-21N between 57W-62W.
The axis of a tropical wave in the W Caribbean extending into the Gulf of Mexico is from 25N82W to 11N84W moving W at 10-15 kt. The northern part of the wave coincides with an upper level rough over Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 16N-26N between 74W-81W.
The monsoon trough is along the African coast between 16W-18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N18W to 08N49W to 11N60W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-13N between 40W-48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A gale warning is in effect for the NE Gulf. See above. A tight pressure gradient with 20-30 kt winds will persist during the next 24 hours. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico along 93W south of 23N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 21N W of 95W. The surface trough is expected to persist over the Bay of Campeche with convection through Wed. An upper level anticyclone is centered over southern Texas near 27N98W.
A low in the SW Caribbean has a high chance of tropical cyclone development. Two tropical waves are moving through the region. See above. Isolated convection and moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean.
Hispaniola is between tropical waves. Skies are expected to remain partly cloudy today, with some passing showers mainly over the southern part of the island.
A gale warning is in effect east of Florida. See above. A cold front extends from 32N45W to 26N57W, becoming stationary and weakening along 26N between 57W-75W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front. A broad surface ridge extending SW from a surface high centered NE of the Azores near 41N24W dominates the Atlantic N of 20N and E of 45W.
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