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Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/5/2017, 11:27 pm

NOAA G-IV data that sampled the high altitude around the storm should be in the models tonight. I don't know how much would have been in the 18Z GFS and how much in the 0Z GFS coming within a few hours. How the storm reacts to hitting the water of the NW Carib will be important. If it does have a well defined inner core, it might start intensifying very quickly. I was hoping maybe the previous broadness might take longer for it to develop, but it's been firing convection over land near the center. Smaller storms can develop fast. We'll have to see how it continues to evolve in that regard. People should be planning for a much stronger storm. We'll know a lot within 12 hours about the intensity. (if it has intensified a lot in that time)


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Tropical Storm #Nate Advisory 6: Center of Nate Moving Into Eastern Honduras - cypresstx, 10/5/2017, 5:02 pm

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