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Re: Nate is to the right of where it should be based on recon

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/6/2017, 7:53 am

I don't know if this is a temporary movement (a wobble) or maybe reflective of it's broadness. From 7pm CDT forecast point last night to 7am CDT forecast point this morning, 353.5 degrees from me measuring in Google Earth.







Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING NATE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 17.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Nate is moving toward the
north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general track with a
marked increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula early this evening.  Nate will then move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf coast
Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few
hours, but gradually subside.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected by late this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

67



In this thread:

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 - 16.9 N 85.1 W, NNW at 14 mph, 999 mb, 45 mph - cypresstx, 10/6/2017, 4:48 am

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