Re: Forward speed an inhibiting factor?
Posted by Chris in Tampa
on 10/6/2017, 1:56 pm
|I think forward speed is part of it. It's moving faster than some of the NHC forecasts.|
It also needed to be smaller and have an inner core coming back over water after Honduras to take the most advantage of the deep warm water. In the first NHC discussion it said "it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America". It's been too large to be able to develop very quickly over the NW Carib starting as soon as it hit water again. Also, the inner core was not well defined right when it got back over water. That's not to say it won't become a hurricane, it can easily become a hurricane as forecast, but at least it's not been rapidly strengthening over the NW Carib since getting back over water. The inner core does look to be getting better defined now, but the forward movement does seem to be keeping it from spinning as well as it could, at least so far.
Recon just leaving:
GOES-16 CONUS imagery since floaters are off it:
RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State:
RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison:
College of DuPage:
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