Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules




Re: Forward speed an inhibiting factor?

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/6/2017, 5:32 pm

Based on actual surface data from the buy.

It didn't have the ability to use those high heat content waters all it could have thankfully, but it is getting better organized over those waters and has been able to strengthen some. You can see it is starting to look more and more organized on satellite. It still has a lot of time to be stronger than forecast.

From 4pm CDT Friday NHC discussion:

"Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico."

You can see some of the percentage chances in the SHIPS text output of intensification:

From 1pm CDT:

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  41% is   3.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   9% is   3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  24% is   4.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  18% is   3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)


From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17100618AL1617_ships.txt
From bottom of folder: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Two aircraft on the way:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

NOAA P-3 with radar and Air Force behind it.

86



In this thread:

Forward speed an inhibiting factor? - LawKat, 10/6/2017, 10:30 am

< Return to message board



Post A Reply

Subject:


Message:

Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:
Add  


Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.