Re: Forward speed an inhibiting factor?
Posted by Chris in Tampa
on 10/6/2017, 5:32 pm
|Based on actual surface data from the buy.|
It didn't have the ability to use those high heat content waters all it could have thankfully, but it is getting better organized over those waters and has been able to strengthen some. You can see it is starting to look more and more organized on satellite. It still has a lot of time to be stronger than forecast.
From 4pm CDT Friday NHC discussion:
"Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico."
You can see some of the percentage chances in the SHIPS text output of intensification:
From 1pm CDT:
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
From bottom of folder: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
Two aircraft on the way:
NOAA P-3 with radar and Air Force behind it.
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