| I would say given recent trends on satellite, I would say more likely than 50/50 to strengthen that much or more. Nate didn't take advantage as much as it could have over the NW Carib, but that doesn't mean it didn't at all. It's starting to seriously make up for it now. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 74 77 74 69 61 46 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 74 54 35 30 29 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 74 78 58 36 30 29 32 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 12 11 14 26 35 40 54 64 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 6 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 347 325 301 286 251 260 267 268 279 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.6 28.9 27.6 25.2 23.8 21.5 15.5 17.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 167 165 152 134 111 101 89 74 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 164 163 156 139 121 101 93 82 71 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 2 4 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 77 72 65 57 52 46 45 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 22 22 21 18 17 14 11 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 59 27 29 36 -10 -14 -4 -28 -15 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 52 43 60 80 48 61 59 32 2 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 10 11 10 19 10 52 41 28 8 -53 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 194 400 254 53 -100 -519 -458 -110 101 37 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 23.3 25.2 27.0 28.7 31.6 35.1 38.3 41.0 43.0 44.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.8 87.8 88.4 89.0 88.1 85.3 80.9 75.2 69.0 62.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 20 18 16 18 22 25 25 25 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 63 85 33 31 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 19 CX,CY: -5/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -11. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 19. 14. 6. -9. -24. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.3 85.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 47.0% 30.6% 20.0% 9.7% 24.9% 17.8% 10.8% Logistic: 29.6% 43.5% 28.9% 13.9% 12.9% 19.2% 9.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 28.8% 53.6% 49.9% 10.8% 9.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 25.4% 48.0% 36.5% 14.9% 10.8% 15.0% 9.1% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 66 71 74 54 35 30 29 29 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 67 47 28 23 22 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 39 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT From bottom of this folder: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ |