Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules




SHIPS intensity output for 8pm EDT Friday

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/6/2017, 11:14 pm

I would say given recent trends on satellite, I would say more likely than 50/50 to strengthen that much or more. Nate didn't take advantage as much as it could have over the NW Carib, but that doesn't mean it didn't at all. It's starting to seriously make up for it now.



                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  NATE        AL162017  10/07/17  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    61    66    71    74    77    74    69    61    46    31    25    21
V (KT) LAND       55    61    66    71    74    54    35    30    29    29    17   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       55    62    69    74    78    58    36    30    29    32    31   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         6    10    10    12    11    14    26    35    40    54    64   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     0    -2     0     0     0     0     6    -5    -1   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR         43   347   325   301   286   251   260   267   268   279   275   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         29.7  29.5  29.7  29.6  28.9  27.6  25.2  23.8  21.5  15.5  17.8   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   168   164   167   165   152   134   111   101    89    74    78   N/A   N/A
ADJ. POT. INT.   169   164   163   156   139   121   101    93    82    71    73   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -53.2   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.5   0.5   0.6   0.5   0.6   1.0   0.7   0.7   0.4   0.2  -0.3  N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     7     8     7     2     4     1     1     0     0   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     80    78    78    77    72    65    57    52    46    45    46   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    20    20    20    22    22    21    18    17    14    11    11  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    92    59    27    29    36   -10   -14    -4   -28   -15   -13   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        74    52    43    60    80    48    61    59    32     2    18   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       1    10    11    10    19    10    52    41    28     8   -53   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        103   194   400   254    53  -100  -519  -458  -110   101    37   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     21.3  23.3  25.2  27.0  28.7  31.6  35.1  38.3  41.0  43.0  44.5   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     85.9  86.8  87.8  88.4  89.0  88.1  85.3  80.9  75.2  69.0  62.4   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    20    21    20    18    16    18    22    25    25    25    25   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      68    63    85    33    31    15     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 19      CX,CY:  -5/ 18
 T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  467  (MEAN=618)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
 PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            8.9

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   3.   4.   6.   8.   8.   6.   4.   2.  -1.  -2.  -3.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   3.   0.  -4. -11. -19. -22. -24.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   8.
 PERSISTENCE            3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
 200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
 THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
 700-500 MB RH         -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.   1.   0.  -1.  -5.  -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -0.
 850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   3.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   2.   1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
 GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           6.  11.  16.  19.  22.  19.  14.   6.  -9. -24. -30. -34.

               CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   21.3    85.9

     ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE       10/07/17  00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    15.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.78          11.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.8      30.1  to    2.9       0.75           4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    56.0       0.0  to  156.2       0.36           2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.5       2.4  to   -3.0       0.36           2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    18.6      36.6  to    2.8       0.53           3.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    55.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.91           2.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   103.3      28.4  to  139.6       0.67           2.8
D200 (10**7s-1)       :    61.8     -29.7  to  181.5       0.43           0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    99.4     961.4  to  -67.1       0.84           0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  18% is   3.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  47% is   4.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  31% is   4.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  20% is   4.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  25% is   4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  18% is   3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  11% is   1.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHIPS-RII:    17.8%   47.0%   30.6%   20.0%    9.7%   24.9%   17.8%   10.8%
   Logistic:    29.6%   43.5%   28.9%   13.9%   12.9%   19.2%    9.3%    0.7%
   Bayesian:    28.8%   53.6%   49.9%   10.8%    9.8%    0.9%    0.1%    0.0%
  Consensus:    25.4%   48.0%   36.5%   14.9%   10.8%   15.0%    9.1%    3.8%

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE       10/07/17  00 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE       10/07/2017  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0    ***(***)     ***(***)       0(***)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0     ERR          ERR          ERR         <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
     TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  55    61    66    71    74    54    35    30    29    29    17   DIS   DIS
18HR AGO           55    54    59    64    67    47    28    23    22    22   DIS   DIS   DIS
12HR AGO           55    52    51    56    59    39    20    15   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 6HR AGO           55    49    46    45    48    28   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
     NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
 IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
 IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT


From bottom of this folder: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

50



In this thread:

10pm CDT Friday; 70mph; Nate almost a hurricane as it moves into southern Gulf - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2017, 11:06 pm

< Return to message board



Post A Reply

Subject:


Message:

Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:
Add  


Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.