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4am CDT Saturday; 80mph; NNW at 22mph; Nate continues moving rapidly over Central Gulf

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/7/2017, 5:35 am

There has been no additional recon, so everything remains the same for the current intensity.

The peak forecast intensity has been increased to 90mph with NHC discussion noting:

" Another reconnaissance plane is currently
approaching Nate.

The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low,
while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional
strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight
increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate
to be a little bit stronger just before landfall."

NOAA and Air Force missions are on the way to Nate:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/
NOAA P-3 has radar data available.




Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?cone#contents

Satellite floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/16L/16L_floater.html
Other Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

GOES-16 CONUS imagery (5 minute imagery):

RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State:
http://col.st/ic5Hl

RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison:
https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/lClwe

College of DuPage:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-24-0-100









Hurricane Nate Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...HURRICANE NATE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Cuba and Mexico have discontinued all watches and
warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nate is moving toward
the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast thereafter.  On the forecast track, the center of
Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico today and will make
landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible before Nate makes landfall
along the northern Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane will
investigate Nate soon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). Cabo San Antonio in the western tip of Cuba reported
gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h) a few hours ago.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin earlier. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning later
today over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


96



In this thread:

4am CDT Saturday; 80mph; NNW at 22mph; Nate continues moving rapidly over Central Gulf - Chris in Tampa, 10/7/2017, 5:35 am

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