| http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Nate BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 ...NATE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 88.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Metropolitan New Orleans, and Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of Pearl River eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken as it moves farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Mobile airport recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Mobile Bay... 5 to 8 ft North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River... 4 to 6 ft. Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line... 3 to 5 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida... 2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 The eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the Keesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane Hunters. The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986 mb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC. Since that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface observations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60 kt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about 36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model. Radar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast at 20 kt. Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a north-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed for the next 2 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours. 2. Nate's fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S. 3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.5N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |