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11pm AST Thursday on Ophelia, about 670 miles SW of the Azores: 105mph

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/13/2017, 12:56 am

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/17L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=17&display=google_map&latestrun=1

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp









Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Remarkably, the hurricane has continued to strengthen this evening.
Satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled
in the past several hours, with a warm eye remaining.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB and CIMSS range between 90 to 95 kt, so the
initial intensity is raised to 90 kt.

It seems that the marginal SSTs that Ophelia has been moving over
have been offset by the cold upper-level temperatures and low shear
environment.  SSTs only slightly cool in the next 24 hours with
similar shear conditions, so a minor decrease in strength is in the
forecast.  After that time, while the hurricane should move over
colder waters, it will likely be accelerating to the northeast and
experiencing favorable mid-latitude jet dynamics, which will help to
maintain the cyclone's intensity.  All of the guidance show
extratropical transition by 3 days with the cyclone keeping
hurricane-force winds, as indicated in the new forecast. Little
change was made to the previous prediction, except to account for
the higher initial wind speed.

Ophelia is finally moving, estimated at 6 kt to the east-northeast.
This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days as the hurricane gets picked up by a
large mid-latitude trough.  Confidence in the track forecast remains
fairly high for the first 72 h, although the spread increases after
that time.  The GFS-based guidance generally then show a more
northward track to the west of Ireland then over the far North
Atlantic, while the UKMET/ECMWF show a track over Ireland and Great
Britain then eastward and dissipating over northern Europe.
The forecast is close to the consensus at long range, but some large
changes could be required for later forecasts.

While the NHC track keeps the center of Ophelia south and east
of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout
the Azores by Saturday night due to an approaching front.  In
addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the
cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to the
left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the
islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by
the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 30.7N  34.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 31.2N  33.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 32.2N  31.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 33.7N  27.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 36.0N  23.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 45.0N  14.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  17/0000Z 56.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  18/0000Z 64.0N   0.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake








Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL BUT POWERFUL OPHELIA WITH 105-MPH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 34.7W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 34.7 West. Ophelia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a
large increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slow weakening is forecast to begin Friday
night but Ophelia should remain a hurricane for the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores Saturday and Saturday
night.  During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

















Met Eireann - Irish Meteorological Service:
https://www.met.ie/

Met Office - United Kingdom's Meteorological Service:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (Azores is an autonomous region of Portugal):
http://www.ipma.pt/en/

86



In this thread:

11pm AST Thursday on Ophelia, about 670 miles SW of the Azores: 105mph - Chris in Tampa, 10/13/2017, 12:56 am

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