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2am EDT Friday: 50% chance through 48 hours / 5 days

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/27/2017, 4:46 am

Based on yesterday's Plan of the Day, Air Force recon is scheduled for later this afternoon if necessary. NHC says that due to strong winds from the cold front, starting Sunday conditions become less favorable.



"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea has become more concentrated during the
past several hours between northeastern Honduras and Jamaica.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development today and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Strong upper-level winds
associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less
favorable by Sunday.   Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two.  These
rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South
Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven"




NOUS42 KNHC 261416
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT THU 26 OCTOBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2017
        TCPOD NUMBER.....17-147

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
      FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71           FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
      A. 27/2000Z                     A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
      B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST           B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
      C. 27/1645Z                     C. 28/0830Z
      D. 17.5N 85.0W                  D. 20.0N 85.0W
      E. 27/2000Z TO 28/0000Z         E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT             F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF THIS SYSTEM AT 28/2330Z
      IF IT DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

49



In this thread:

Invest 93L in Western Caribbean - Chris in Tampa, 10/23/2017, 11:15 pm

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