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2pm EDT Friday: Invest 93L has a 80% chance of development

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/27/2017, 2:00 pm

Recon on the way: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

No HDOBs (obs usually every 30 seconds, posted in a message usually every 10 minutes) for some reason. (as of posting this)



"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning
to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or
Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday.
Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman
Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas later today or tonight.  Interests in the Florida Keys and
South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to
investigate this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and
portions of Cuba during the next day or two.  Rainfall is also
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan"

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



Satellite floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/93L_floater.html
Atlantic satellite views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

79



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2pm EDT Friday: Invest 93L has a 80% chance of development - Chris in Tampa, 10/27/2017, 2:00 pm

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