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Invest 93L now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. TS warnings in parts of Cuba and Bahamas

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/27/2017, 5:06 pm

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html













Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long
Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is
expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system
will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the
northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm
tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The system has the potential to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Northern Honduras:  Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night.
Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern
Bahamas:  4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

South Florida including the Florida Keys:  3 to 5 inches, isolated
maximum of 8 inches possible.

These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan








Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined center. In
fact, the aircraft data and satellite imagery suggest that there are
multiple circulations embedded within a broader circulation at this
time. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the system is not a
tropical cyclone, but since tropical storm conditions are expected
to affect Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas in the next 24 to 36
hours, advisories are being initiated on the system as a potential
tropical cyclone at this time.

The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on aircraft data, with
these winds found well south of the broad circulation center.
However, NOAA buoy 42057 also reported a peak 1-minute wind of 31 kt
earlier today. Aircraft data suggest that the central pressure is
around 1006 mb. The system is situated in a low-shear environment
and over warm waters, so some slow strengthening is expected in the
first 24 hours before the system reaches Cuba. The official forecast
follows the trend of the intensity consensus in showing a peak of
around 45 kt at 36 and 48 hours before the system is absorbed by an
approaching cold front in 60-72 hours.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial position is and
the initial motion of 330/05 are highly uncertain. A faster
northward motion should begin soon as the disturbance begins to
recurve ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level trough moving into
the southeastern United States. This trough should cause a faster
northeastward acceleration at 24 through 48 hours. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement on the overall scenario,
with more along than cross track spread. The NHC forecast leans
toward a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and is a little slower
than the current multi-model consensus. Not surprisingly, given the
disorganized initial state of the system, the track forecast
uncertainty is larger than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 17.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  28/0600Z 19.1N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H  28/1800Z 21.7N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  29/0600Z 24.6N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  29/1800Z 28.0N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  30/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

92



In this thread:

Invest 93L now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. TS warnings in parts of Cuba and Bahamas - Chris in Tampa, 10/27/2017, 5:06 pm

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