Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules

Re: NHC 24,48 hr forecast postion, 24,48,72 hr forecast wind speed average error

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 12/6/2017, 8:17 pm

A great way to see how the storms were forecast, especially on intensity. They did fairly well on them. For Irma and Maria, even though the intensity was off, most especially in Irma, a powerful strengthening storm was forecast. I think people had sufficient warning in most cases of that. (not sure about Cuba for Irma) I will say again that I think 7 day forecasts would be a bad idea. Your charts are great at showing how off they were on intensity at the shorter range. They forecast a powerful storm for Irma and Maria, but a 7 day forecast would have been very off. Even on the 5 day. With the 3 day for Irma, off by as much as 40mph at 24hr, 45mph at 48hr and 60mph at 72hr. A major hurricane was forecast at those periods, even though it ended up being much stronger.

Harvey was more complex of course. Wind mattered at the initial landfall point, but the rain was very well forecast. They tried to emphasize that and I think they did a good job, even if it didn't get across to some people.


In this thread:

NHC 24,48 hr forecast postion, 24,48,72 hr forecast wind speed average error - Fred, 11/26/2017, 11:03 am

< Return to message board

Post A Reply



Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:

Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.