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Re: NHC 24,48 hr forecast postion, 24,48,72 hr forecast wind speed average error

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 12/6/2017, 8:17 pm

A great way to see how the storms were forecast, especially on intensity. They did fairly well on them. For Irma and Maria, even though the intensity was off, most especially in Irma, a powerful strengthening storm was forecast. I think people had sufficient warning in most cases of that. (not sure about Cuba for Irma) I will say again that I think 7 day forecasts would be a bad idea. Your charts are great at showing how off they were on intensity at the shorter range. They forecast a powerful storm for Irma and Maria, but a 7 day forecast would have been very off. Even on the 5 day. With the 3 day for Irma, off by as much as 40mph at 24hr, 45mph at 48hr and 60mph at 72hr. A major hurricane was forecast at those periods, even though it ended up being much stronger.

Harvey was more complex of course. Wind mattered at the initial landfall point, but the rain was very well forecast. They tried to emphasize that and I think they did a good job, even if it didn't get across to some people.

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NHC 24,48 hr forecast postion, 24,48,72 hr forecast wind speed average error - Fred, 11/26/2017, 11:03 am

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