Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents Rainfall potential: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?rainqpf#contents More detailed: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in terms of the overall impacts from Barry. Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5. The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance. Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Cameron to Sabine Pass. The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... Intracoastal City to Biloxi Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... Intracoastal City to Cameron A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barry was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. Barry is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move through southern Louisiana today, into central Louisiana tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. As it moves inland, Barry is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in the next few hours, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 82 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over a small area east of the center and should persist for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area to the east of the center at this time. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |