Re: Crazy
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/12/2019, 9:29 am
The NHC's formation area now includes more around the east coast of Florida rather than simply pointing it across Florida. The aircraft would get some data in the storm, but there is nothing scheduled for around the storm. I don't think there was much consideration of it doing something other than going across Florida first. There is an Air Force mission scheduled for this afternoon, scheduled to arrive at what might be the center at 1:30pm EDT. Then two more Air Force missions between then and tomorrow afternoon. The earliest we might see the G-IV sampling around would be tomorrow evening if they scheduled it in today's Plan of the Day.

Recon Plan of the Day:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Outlook:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila
64
In this thread:
8pm EDT Wednesday: Invest 95L, in the vicinity of southeast Bahamas, has a high chance of development within 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 9/11/2019, 8:21 pm
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