70% chance as of 8am EDT Friday: "is becoming better defined"
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/25/2019, 8:09 am
Rather than say it could become "a short-lived tropical depression" it now says "It appears likely that a short-lived tropical cyclone will form later today". Tropical cyclone could be a tropical depression or higher. Before they were just mentioning tropical depression. Perhaps it is because it is a different forecaster or maybe because they think it might be a little stronger as a tropical entity and could get a name. (which would be Olga) It is looking better organized. Recon will occur later today if needed. Takeoff at 12pm EDT and scheduled to arrive at center at 2pm EDT.
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low
pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico is becoming
better defined, and that the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization. It appears likely
that a short-lived tropical cyclone will form later today. However,
the system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become
post-tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the
cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For
more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Shower activity has increased this morning near the center of a
large non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of
the western Azores. Some additional development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves generally
east-northeastward.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Beven"
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 |
65
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.