Re: My thoughts on the 2019 season
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/30/2019, 11:18 pm
5 for 5. In a season where there may not have been as high of a percentage of hits, that's incredible.
Stronger storms out of the ones that form, and seeing them further north, seems like something that will become more and more normal for the Atlantic. That might in part explain the Azores. But they also name more than they used to in that area. Trying to figure out whether there is an increase, decrease, or little change in the number of storms may be something that takes awhile to figure out. Reanalysis like Fred posted about helps, but we need great satellite coverage, such as with scatterometers, and the same methodology applied to all storms that are named. I don't know how good the data is where we can tell if for a few hours a swirl of clouds in the middle of the ocean in the satellite era decades ago qualified as a 40mph storm or not. We need decades of being able to know that before we can know about the number of storms I think. I don't know how much reliable data we have in that regard.
And as a side note about intensity, we need as much measured data as we can get. More information from recon, drones (from the little ones that can fly around the eyewall that are launched from a plane to the Global Hawk that can drop sondes from high altitude), direct measurements from more mobile stations positioned near landfalls, etc. It'll cost a lot more, but we really need it.
Storms like Dorian are going to become increasingly more frequent. I do feel so bad for the people who did everything they reasonably could have but still may have lost their lives. You can't evacuate an entire island and there may not have been enough high ground and sturdy enough structures on it to house everyone. And in a storm like that I would imagine there would be a lot of people that wouldn't know where best to go. For so many hurricanes there is a right decision. You evacuate. But for storms that powerful and with so little options, it's not that simple for some. There's a lot of places like that in the Caribbean. Even places in the U.S. though. Key West for example if there wasn't a lot of time. And eventually there will be a storm like this that heads for a major city. It's just a question of which year in particular it happens. |
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