Re: windy monday 4/13
Posted by
Fred on 4/11/2020, 5:32 pm
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Could see some leading bands of WAA showers Sunday night ahead
of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and
temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected
late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ
develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show
sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever
seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts,
model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM
too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the
difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little
more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing
heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts
65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly
the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson
River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across
Long Island and coastal SE CT.
Rain, moderate to heavy at times mainly in the morning and early
afternoon, should become more showery in the afternoon. Rumbles
of thunder are possible with TT 50+ and MUCAPE 500+ J/kg.
High temps on Monday from the upper 50s/lower 60s in coastal
sections, to mid/upper 60s NW of NYC.
|
23
In this thread:
windy monday 4/13 -
Fred,
4/11/2020, 11:05 am Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.