TD Two-E
Posted by
cypresstx on 5/30/2020, 5:13 pm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#Two-E
Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020
400 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020
Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system that NHC has
been monitoring near the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador has
developed sufficiently organized deep convection and a well-defined
center to be classified a tropical depression. It should be noted
that this depression is embedded within a large gyre that is spread
out across the far eastern Pacific and portions of Central America.
The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, following the maximum wind
observed in recent ASCAT passes and a Dvorak classification from
TAFB. The depression could strengthen a little before it reaches
the coast of Guatemala early Sunday, but significant strengthening
is not expected given the broad structure of the cyclone and its
limited time over water. A tropical storm warning has been issued
by the governments of Guatemala and El Salvador for the entire
coastline of those countries.
The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 030/3 kt,
but this is highly uncertain given that the center of the system
has only recently become well defined. The track models are in
fairly good agreement that a slow northward or north-northeastward
should occur through landfall, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate over the rugged terrain of Guatemala late Sunday or
Sunday night.
The main hazard from the system, and the larger gyre, is expected to
be heavy rainfall. The depression's slow forward motion, large
size, and abundant tropical moisture could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides across portions of Central America and
southern Mexico. For additional information, see products
issued by your national meteorological service.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 15.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi |
54
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