| I have an issue with calling Ike fast moving too. Sure, it was faster than Harvey was when it flooded the area, but so is most every other storm in history. (when talking about how it eventually stalled) The problem with Ike was it was large and slow moving. The winds were 110mph, yet it did tremendous damage due to surge because it was so large and so slow moving, it built up the water along the coast. After landfall it picked up some speed. From September 13, 2008: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/IKE.shtml? "REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB." "...IKE MAKES LANDFALL AT GALVESTON... RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT." "REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB." "REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...30.1 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB." "REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...30.5 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB." "REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB." "REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB." "REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...32.4 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB." But I really hate that headline. Even if it is true that upper level winds might have hurricanes linger less in that region on average, having hurricanes like Ike are still bad. I guess it depends where you are as to whether rain or surge is your problem. (though a faster moving storm would mean less surge than if it were slow moving, but again, Ike wasn't slow moving) I didn't look at the study. Rainfall seems to be increasing right now in these storms, but 55 to 80 years from now it might be less in that area due to upper level winds that make the storm clear out of the area faster? Maybe rainfall in the storms would remain higher than it should, but it just gets pushed out of that particular area quicker so less rain for that region. Seems odd anyway, like what about from now through 2075? Maybe the study gets into that. A little odd to be talking about something 55 to 80 years away. A long time to wait to see if the researchers are right or wrong. The quote in that short article: "We find that the probability of having strong northward steering winds will increase with climate change, meaning hurricanes over Texas will be more likely to move like Ike than Harvey" Isn't what the headline says: "Future hurricanes more likely to be fast-moving storms like Ike, Rice researcher says" "fast-moving storms like Ike" is not the same as "will be more likely to move like Ike than Harvey". The researcher didn't say what the headline says, unless they say it in the study somewhere. The person who wrote the article may not have written the headline. Full article: "Future hurricanes more likely to be fast-moving storms like Ike, Rice researcher says Hurricanes are expected to blow through Texas more quickly during the last 25 years of this century. A study led by Rice University researcher Pedram Hassanzadeh found that climate change will make future hurricanes fast-moving storms like Ike in 2008 rather than slow-moving rainmakers like Harvey in 2017. "We find that the probability of having strong northward steering winds will increase with climate change, meaning hurricanes over Texas will be more likely to move like Ike than Harvey," Hassanzadeh said in a news release. Hurricane Harvey caused an estimated $125 billion in damage, matching 2005's Katrina as the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, according to the news release. Ike's coastal flooding and high winds caused $38 billion in damage across several states. In 2008, it was the second-costliest U.S. hurricane. It has since moved to sixth. Research for the study, which was published online in Nature Communications on Friday, began during Hurricane Harvey as Rice University researchers began collaborating with Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Harvard University. Researchers used more than a dozen different computer models to produce several hundred simulations. All of them found an uptick in northward steering winds over Texas." |