Now Tropical Depression Eight; Tropical storm watch issued for much of Texas coastline
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/23/2020, 12:48 am
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents

Satellite floater:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL082020#homePageLink
More satellite imagery: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2020&storm=07#satellite




https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1286135852469383169





Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined
center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep
convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The
initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier
reconnaissance data.

The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A
subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause
it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as
it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to
the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to
the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the
Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in
fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the various consensus models.

The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate
wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the
warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so
some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is
still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be
gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should
commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and
HCCA guidance.

Key Messages

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch has been issued.

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result
in flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi









TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020
0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 88.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 88.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 88.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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91L - cypresstx, 7/22/2020, 9:42 am
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