Re: Cat. 2 or higher en route?
Posted by James g on 8/23/2020, 3:46 pm
I would think that the fate of that western Gulf trough will ultimately determine just how intense Laura becomes prior to making landfall. It seems to me that this trough, up until now anyway, has not been handled well by the models. That said, this trough will eventually either break down and become to weak to influence any tropical system to its east, or this trough will lift to the NE and likely be replaced by higher upper level pressure. I seem to recall that tropical systems have a tendency to intensify rapidly, when upper level high pressure systems are situated just to the SW of their low to mid level circulations ? If this trough is replaced by a upper high pressure system when Laura or her remains enter the Gulf, Laura becoming a cat 2 is certainly not out of the question, particularly if it so happens that Laura is still a vertically well stacked system when she enters the Gulf.
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Laura - Chris in Tampa, 8/21/2020, 5:46 am
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