| While rainfall will probably be the major threat, it could be a major hurricane at landfall, in terms of wind speed. Sadly, this seems like it could be a storm that is retired due to what the rain alone does. Long term, the NHC isn't sure if it is this or something else that could potentially form in the NW Carib later. Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline. After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area. The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very similar to the various model consensus predictions. Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 80.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 80.9W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |