| I was hoping it might weaken but it has basically held steady today. A new recon mission, the final one into the storm, is about half way there. The rainfall is probably going to be the worst again. If there is any good news, at least so far, is that the storm is just a tad further south of the last one. But that is so far, wobbles are going to matter considerably. The current track has it making landfall about 8 to 9 miles south of where Eta did. This is very important because a large population center, Puerto Cabezas, was about 18 miles north-northeast of where Eta made landfall. (Wikipedia lists 66,000 population) That would put it about 26 miles away this time. That would be out of the core of dangerous winds. On the forecast track, maybe less than a thousand people, dozens to a few hundred each in a half dozen towns, that could potentially get the worst winds at the coast. As for surge though, that could be a problem further north than the core of strongest winds. I'm just hoping there are no wobbles northward. Anything further south would be better for the most populated area in that region. But again, rainfall is going to bad well inland. Combined with strong winds that will still exist further inland, it's going to be bad well away from the coast. But hopefully Puerto Cabezas will be spared the core. Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has a powerful appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with a well-defined eye and solid eyewall. The last aircraft mission reported winds similar to the previous crew, with maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of about 145 kt, with SFMR values of 130-135 kt, and a central pressure of about 919 mb. This data support an initial wind speed of about 140 kt, although this could be a little generous. The next aircraft will be in the hurricane early this evening for a final reconnaissance assessment. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall this evening, and rapid weakening is anticipated over central America. Notably, strong winds are expected near the core and in coastal areas of Honduras for about a day after landfall, along with torrential rainfall. The hurricane is moving westward a little slower, about 8 kt. The forecast has been gradually adjusting southward with Iota refusing to gain much latitude, seemingly under the influence of a strong ridge. The new NHC track is nudged southward again, but still remains close to where Hurricane Eta made landfall a couple of weeks ago. Iota is expected to dissipate over the high terrain of central America before reaching the eastern Pacific. This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 13.6N 82.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.7N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |