| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/?cone#contents "Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today." The level of impact in Mexico is still uncertain. I was going to only mention the storm because it was the first hurricane of the season, but then noticed that it could also have life-threatening flash flooding, mudslides, surf and rip current conditions. The direct wind impacts remain uncertain. Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify, cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear is occurring. The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady weakening. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 104.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |