| Then select CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Or this one is even better: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn The link in the main thread is for the August 29th 0Z run specifically. As for the CMC (which is the Global Environmental Multiscale model, GEM), here is some information from a blog post from Jeff Masters in 2020: A 2016 study by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin found four models can make decent forecasts out to five days in advance of the genesis of new tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. The model with the highest success ratio (rewarding correct genesis forecasts combined with fewest false alarms) was the European (ECMWF), followed by the UKMET, the GFS, and Canadian models. The study found that skill declined markedly for forecasts beyond two days into the future, and skill was lowest for small tropical cyclones. The European model had the lowest probability of correctly making a genesis forecast - near 20% - but had the fewest false alarms. The GFS correctly made genesis forecasts 20 - 25% of the time, but had more false alarms. The Canadian model had the greatest chance of making a correct genesis forecast, but also had the highest number of false alarms. The take-home message: if the Canadian model is predicting genesis, it is suggestive that something may be afoot, but don't bet on tropical cyclone genesis until the European model comes on board. In general, when two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring increase considerably, the study found. From: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/the-most-reliable-hurricane-models-according-to-their-2019-performance/ I underlined the important takeaway he has there. It doesn't mean its wrong, but its best to see if other models get onboard more. I don't know if there have been any updates to the model or if its performance has improved since then. Since its hard to pick up what the other models might be seeing, here is vorticity, which makes it easier to track weaker things: GFS vorticity: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort Euro: vorticity https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort You can see a vorticity heading off toward the NW in both of those in the runs as of posting this, but it is hard to follow. NHC has it at 20% still as of 8pm EDT Monday in outlook below. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Ida, located inland over Mississippi. Future advisories on Ida will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just off the west coast of Africa. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mostly on its south side. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development by the end of the week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Ida can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Forecaster Cangialosi From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 German global model (ICON, which stands for Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic model and is from Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD, the German Meteorological Service) also shows it heading NW: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) does as well: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=watl&pkg=z500_mslp The good in all these so far, they are weak, perhaps because they run over some land. Even Japan's global model (Global Spectral Model, GSM, from Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) does too, but I don't really ever look at this one: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=watl&pkg=z500_mslp I will say that for this one I wouldn't pay too much attention to it on Tropical Tidbits site. I don't know anything about it, but when looking at it for Ida, the pressure was way, way off. Other models on Tropical Tidbits' site seem to have a much better estimation of pressure. JMA had an initialization of Ida at 1002mb just south of Louisiana, at least on the imagery at Tropical Tidbits. (Ida's actual pressure at the time, 933mb) I assume poor model resolution, but I don't know. Maybe the model is better and Tropical Tidbits gets a lower resolution version. |