BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Boca Raton to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach. A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound Georgia to
the Savannah River and from Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River Georgia
* Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to
west-southwest motion should continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today
and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and
approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane
warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then expected to
move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and
Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday
and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern
Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Suwannee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Long Boat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported
that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found
700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of
40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to
45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory.

The anticipated westward turn appears to have occurred, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the storm
westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This motion will bring the center of Nicole near the northwest
Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to
northwestward, as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
By 72 hours, Nicole is forecast to recurve over the southeastern
United States ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Although there is
good agreement on this overall scenario, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance on exactly when Nicole makes the
west-northwestward turn near the east coast of Florida. The
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions that are expected to allow for
steady strengthening during the approach to the northwestern
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast calls for
Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas
and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the various intensity consensus
aids. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida
and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United
States. Although the system could still produce
tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters.
Nicole should be extratropical by late Friday, and most of the
global models show the circulation dissipating between days 4 and 5.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely with
possible river rises on the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in Southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 27.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown