BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE INTENSIFYING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Savannah River to the
South Santee River South Carolina and from the Suwannee River
Florida to the Ochlockonee River Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Altamaha Sound
Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 73.7 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-southwest
motion is expected through early Wednesday. A westward to
west-northwest motion is forecast to begin later on Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on
Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas tonight, move near or
over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early
Thursday. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central
and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on
Wednesday when it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a
hurricane when it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida
into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning
late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the central convection associated
with Nicole has become better organized this afternoon, with a
curved convective band wrapped about three-quarters of the way
around the center. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed winds
near 45 kt about 60 n mi northwest of the center, and a just
received microwave overpass shows an additional increase in
organization. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 55 kt. Water vapor and air mass imagery shows a large
area of mid- to upper-level dry air over the southern semicircle of
the circulation, and some of this may be entraining into the core at
this time.

Nicole is continuing its anticipated turn with the initial motion
now 260/9. A strong deep-layer ridge over the eastern United
States should steer the storm west-southwestward during the next
24-30 h, with this motion bringing the center near or over the
Northwestern Bahamas. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn westward to
west-northwestward as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
There is some spread in the guidance as to how much of a turn will
occur, with the ECMWF and GFS showing a more westward motion, while
the HWRF and HMON show a more northwestward motion. This part of
the forecast track is along the south edge of the guidance and
agreement with the ECMWF and UKMET. After landfall in Florida,
Nicole should turn generally northwestward, with the center
forecast to pass near or over the west coast of Florida north of
Tampa by about 48 h. This should be followed by a turn toward the
north and northeast through the eastern United States as the cyclone
recurves on the east side of a large baroclinic trough moving
through the central United States. This part of the forecast track
is closer to the various consensus models, and overall the new
forecast track is a little south of the previous track through 60 h
and a little west of the previous track after that time.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions, while not ideal due to a nearby
upper-level trough, are expected to allow some strengthening before
the cyclone reaches Florida. The new intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast and calls for Nicole to become a hurricane when it
is near the northwest Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches
Florida. This part of the intensity forecast is at the high end of
the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves
inland over Florida and while it accelerates northeastward over the
southeastern United States. Extratropical transition is expected
to start between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with the storm
likely to maintain gale-force winds after transition. The cyclone
is expected to dissipate as it merges with another mid-latitude low
pressure area by 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 27.5N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.6N 82.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 34.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 45.0N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven