Somebody at NOAA is watching in San Juan
Posted by
JAC on 6/2/2009, 3:04 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1225 PM AST TUE JUN 2 2009
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA... WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY
AND MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...THEN SOUTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER EAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A FAIRLY
DECENT LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 33 WEST THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN...WEAK
INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICES/PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ALONG THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE LONG TERM...APART FROM THE TRANSPORTATION OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE
AND THE LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY SUGGESTS THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...
AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS WITH TIME.
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