North TX / OK Severe Weather this afternoon
Posted by JAC on 6/13/2009, 9:00 am




PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0718 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
 
  ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
  SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS
  OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
 
  THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
 
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
          NORTH TEXAS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE
 
  ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
  AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
 
  A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
  SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
  THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
  WESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF
  INSTABILITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
  THIS EVENING SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE PRODUCING COMPLEX OF
  THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL
  BOUNDARY.
 
  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL
  SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
  WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
  COMPLEX.  OTHER SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  TONIGHT OVER OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS.
 
  STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
  SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
  WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
  WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
  TODAY.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2009



...TX/OK...
  A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
  SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE OVER
  SOUTHERN CA.  DESPITE THE RIDGE ALOFT...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
  NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE
  UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OK
  AND NORTHWEST TX.  STRONG HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL YIELD A
  POCKET OF EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH NUMEROUS MODELS AGREEING ON
  MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG.  HEATING WELL INTO THE 90S WILL
  SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
  WEST TX AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE
  STORMS WILL BE IN A REGION OF STRONG AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER
  EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-60 KNOTS/.  THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
  STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AMPLE LOW
  LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A
  FEW TORNADOES.  SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES ARE
  LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
  SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX. 
 
  ...NM/CO/KS...
  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
  EASTERN CO/NM BY EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
  WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
  OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO.  THESE STORMS WILL
  SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD INTO KS.
  INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER SOUTH.
  HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY
  OFFSET DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND POSE A RISK OF A FEW
  SEVERE STORMS.
 
  ...MS/AL/GA/FL...
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
  MS/AL.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
  AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
  CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS
  STORMS SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD GA/FL PANHANDLE.
 
  ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/13/2009

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North TX / OK Severe Weather this afternoon - JAC, 6/13/2009, 9:00 am
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