GFS digs the Shortwave farther south - Could be a significant outbreak
Posted by JAC on 6/16/2009, 7:43 am
Could run from IA to the East Coast, Friday and Saturday.




ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 160847
  SPC AC 160847
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0347 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
 
  VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
 
  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
  A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION DURING
  THE DAY4 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS
  WHILE INCREASING BOTH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR/ASCENT ACROSS AN
  AIRMASS THAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  IT APPEARS A
  FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT COULD COMMENCE BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
  PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
  DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
 
  SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD WILL BECOME LESS PREDICTABLE
  DUE TO WEAKER BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTIVE
  CONTAMINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER.  EVEN SO...A RISK MAY NEED TO BE
  ADDED TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
 
  ..DARROW.. 06/16/2009







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Possible Severe Weather this Weekend for Great-Lakes & Ontario - JAC, 6/15/2009, 7:29 am
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