KS & NE could have a rough afternoon
Posted by JAC on 6/17/2009, 1:38 pm
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN KS AND S CNTRL/SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 171717Z - 171815Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ONGOING IN N CNTRL KS...AND AN INCREASE IN STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL TRANSITION INTO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND TORNADOES BY MID AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP/OAX USING 17Z OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINS...OWING TO AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ONGOING IN JEWELL/REPUBLIC COUNTIES ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT ROUGHLY NEAR THE CNTRL KS/NEB BORDERS. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS LIKELY ELEVATED AT THE MOMENT...ADJUSTED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...EXTREME INSTABILITY...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL. AS STORMS BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...DMGG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SAMPLED BY TOPEKA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. ..HURLBUT.. 06/17/2009 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE SOUTHWESTERN IOWA EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHWEST MISSOURI MUCH OF NEBRASKA ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A BELT OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTEND OVER THE ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NEAR A WARM FRONT AND NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TOWARD SUNSET. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..IMY.. 06/17/2009 |
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In this thread:
- Nice chase report and pictures of the Aurora, NE twister - JAC, 6/18/2009, 8:13 am
- Incredible Video from SE NE - JAC, 6/18/2009, 1:46 pm
- Re: Incredible Video from SE NE - JAC, 6/18/2009, 1:49 pm
- Incredible Video from SE NE - JAC, 6/18/2009, 1:46 pm
- Roger is under a rotating wall cloud - JAC, 6/17/2009, 9:37 pm
- 58K-ft Cell - JAC, 6/17/2009, 9:41 pm
- Coming up to a very strong couplet - JAC, 6/17/2009, 9:43 pm
- 58K-ft Cell - JAC, 6/17/2009, 9:41 pm
- Re: KS & NE could have a rough afternoon - JAC, 6/17/2009, 1:59 pm
- Insane Instability - JAC, 6/17/2009, 1:45 pm
- Could see it all happen here today - JAC, 6/17/2009, 1:47 pm
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